Terrence Chan

follow me as I play poker and look for new ways to get punched in the face

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WSOP in-the-money props
terrencechan
I got (what I think is) a ton of value on Pinnacle, of the bet type: "Will [name player] Finish in the Money?" I bet the "No" on all of the following at these prices:

Phil Hellmuth -480, -372
Phil Ivey -411, -373, -364
Daniel Negreanu -411, -366, -362
Patrik Antonius -363
Doyle Brunson -410
Todd Brunson -400
Johnny Chan -398
Allen Cunningham -368
Ted Forrest -363
Barry Greenstein -369
Tony Guoga -390
Gus Hansen -378
Phil Laak -398
Erick Lindgren -369
Marcel Luske -393
Mike Matusow -368
Dario Minieri -374
Men Nguyen -388
Max Pescatori -379
Greg Raymer -375
Erik Seidel -371
JC Tran -384
Devilfish Ulliot -388
Dustin Woolf -384
Scotty Nguyen -374
Huck Seed -372

All to win $250 each. I might have missed a few since I did this by hand, but basically I bet on almost everyone with a few exceptions that looked like they weren't of that much value (e.g. David Sklansky -500ish seemed kinda odd).

Bill actually doesn't think these are fantastic value for some of the better players, but I seriously doubt anyone is really much better than 4:1 to cash.
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Why do the top three in the list have three numbers?

And how does the bet work? Like how much did you have
to bet for, e.g. Gus Hanson not to money to win $250?
And how much likewise for Doyle?


A line of the form -NNN means you're wagering $NNN to win $100. (+NNN means you're wagering $100 to win $NNN.) So in the case of Gus Hansen, the line was -378, so Terrence wagered (378/100)*$250 = $945 to win $250.

Seems like good value.

Except for the slight problem that we don't know
exactly what percentage will be in the money.

Well, yeah, duh.

But if it's 9% or 11% that would make a real difference
in your EV, seems to me.

for this group of pros, it was about 16-18%. I don't have who entered last year, so I can only check cashes - thus the range. If they all entered, 16.1%. So, about 83% against.

Multiple numbers means he made multiple bets at different prices. He said "All to win $250" so I take that to mean that he bet $NNN to win $250. So in the case of Gus, he bet $378 to win $250. He's already won at least $1,000 with Daniel and Ted Forrest busted.

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